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Balk to the Future
Rob Hendry, Maryland (May 15, 2012)

Major League Baseball is considering a ban of the pickoff move in which a right-handed pitcher fakes a throw to third, then spins and throws to first. The decision would ban any fake throw to third in which the pitcher does not step off the rubber, and the third-to-first fake is almost exclusively the scenario in which that fake move occurs. Banning this move would eliminate a play that rarely works and adds 10-15 seconds to the game each time it occurs, but it would also do away with some tradition and strategy.

The tradition involved with this move is one where knowledgeable fans get to laugh at the clowns who boo and yell for a balk when a pitcher attempts to catch the runner on first base off guard. It happens every time, as if the drunken fast food employee in the upper deck knows something that the professionals on the field don’t. Here’s a quick tip: if you think something is a balk but the umpires and the opposing manager don’t, you are wrong.

When it comes to strategy, anybody who opposes the use of the designated hitter should also oppose this ruling. The move rarely succeeds in producing an out, but it does keep the runner on first base in check. Left-handers are always able to keep the runner close since their pitching motion looks similar to a pick-off attempt, and the third-to-first move gives right-handers a similar weapon. The move is especially effective with a full count and two outs since the runner on first will always run on the pitch. If you’re lucky you just might see this play work for the pitcher once or twice, and you might even see the offensive team take advantage of it from time to time.

Most teams have a play in place where, when the pitcher attempts this fake move, the trailing runner will get picked off intentionally. The point of the play is to get the defense so focused on the trailing runner that the lead runner will be able to score. The ideal time to attempt this is when a weak hitter is at the plate, so the third-to-first is potentially helpful to either side depending on the batter.

It wouldn’t be a travesty if the play is ultimately outlawed, but it would eliminate a potentially exciting play. In 2011 the Angels’ rookie closer Jordan Walden recorded the last out of a 6-4 game by using the move to pick Curtis Granderson off of first base. This play, much like a walk-off balk, is the type of rarity that can turn an ordinary baseball game into “SportsCenter’s” lead story. Making this play illegal would help shave a bit of time off of some games, but there’s no compelling argument to convince us that it needs to go. Worst of all, if they get rid of the play, the smart fans will lose a great way to pick out the novice fans. We would have to wait until they start doing the wave, and I don’t think anybody wants that.

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The Closer Shuffle
Rob Hendry, Maryland (May 10, 2012)

Nearly half of the teams in Major League Baseball have made a change at the closer position within the first six weeks of the season. The Angels’ Jordan Walden and the Cubs’ Carlos Marmol have combined for just three blown saves but have performed so poorly in general that they have both been demoted. The Dodgers’ Javy Guerra and the White Sox’ Hector Santiago will be replaced by young potential stars Kenley Jansen and Chris Sale, respectively, though Sale might not be Chicago’s closer for long, as he is about to have an MRI on his throwing elbow. Others, like San Diego’s Huston Street, Toronto’s Sergio Santos, and Boston’s Andrew Bailey are out temporarily due to injury, and I still haven’t mentioned the three biggest vacancies.

San Francisco Giants closer Brian Wilson has been possibly the game’s most colorful and popular character while averaging more than 40 saves per season since 2008, but he made just two appearances before his 2012 season ended due to an injury that required Tommy John surgery. His replacement, Santiago Casilla (formerly Jairo Garcia), has filled in nicely with a 1.50 and six saves, but that total already matches his career high for saves. He kept his ERA below 2 in each of the last two seasons, so he is the Giants’ best option for now, but the leap from setup man to closer is usually unkind in the long run. This downgrade, paired with the Dodgers’ recent upgrade, could leave San Francisco in second place all season.

The Miami Marlins signed former Padres closer Heath Bell to a deal that could end up being worth $33 million over four years, so his four blown saves in seven opportunities and ERA of over 11 mean that he’s a slight disappointment so far. Manager Ozzie Guillen insists that Bell’s removal from the closer role is only temporary, but the fact that Bell’s blown saves came against teams that are currently a combined 13 games below .500 offers little comfort that he’ll be completely effective when he gets the job back. Bell is also stuck in a division with such closers as the Phillies’ Jonathan Papelbon and the Braves’ Craig Kimbrel, and the Nationals’ Drew Storen will eventually return to take over for his solid replacement, Henry Rodriguez. The .500 Marlins can’t afford to give away any ninth inning leads with those pitchers waiting to slam the door on the other side.

The title for biggest closer news story of 2012 goes to the Yankees’ Mariano Rivera. Rivera tore his ACL last week while shagging batting practice fly balls, and he will miss the remainder of the season. This will be the first season since Bill Clinton’s first presidential term in which Rivera will finish with fewer than 28 saves, but the Yankees have a strong backup plan. New closer David Robertson allowed just eight earned runs in 2011 and has a clean sheet so far this season. Even if Robertson should fail, the Yankees can always go to former Tampa Bay closer Rafael Soriano, whose 45 saves led the Majors in 2010.

Even with their depth at closer, the Yankees still need to worry about the possibility of dropping some games due to Rivera’s absence. The Red Sox are the only AL East team currently below .500, due largely to injuries suffered by Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Kevin Youkilis, in addition to Andrew Bailey’s absence. Boston won 90 games after a similar start in 2011, and this year the Blue Jays and Orioles each have a chance to contend. The Jays are temporarily in a similar boat as the Sox and Yanks, as far as their main closer is concerned, so the door is slightly open for the Orioles’ Jim Johnson and the Tampa Bay Rays’ Fernando Rodney to lead their teams to the playoffs. Rodney has allowed just one earned run this season, while Johnson, like Robertson, is still working on a shutout. The Rays are a safer long-term bet, given their three playoff appearances in the last four seasons and Joe Maddon’s magical managing style, but Orioles manager Buck Showalter is seen as an equally talented leader who finally has a legitimate roster. The Yankees are still my strong favorite to win the division, but the next two spots will be more contentious than they’ve been in at least a decade.

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